The answer depends on the metric. Russia’s GDP contracted sharply in 2022, but bounced back faster than many economists predicted. That rebound was largely fueled by military spending and a redirection of trade flows. Moscow has deepened economic ties with China, increased exports to India, and relied heavily on the so-called “shadow fleet” to circumvent Western restrictions on oil and gas.
From that vantage point, the impact of sanctions appears limited. The Russian economy is still functioning, its war machine still operational, and its political leadership unshaken. But this surface-level stability masks more enduring vulnerabilities. Export revenues have narrowed, access to advanced technologies has been restricted, and logistical workarounds—such as the use of unregistered oil tankers—are proving costly and difficult to scale. Each new round of sanctions forces another workaround, increasing friction in a system that was already overstretched.
The shift in strategy is telling. Rather than expanding the scope of sanctions, the EU is now refining them—targeting specific vessels, adjusting price caps in line with market conditions, and closing legal grey zones. This approach suggests not fatigue, but patience. A recognition that sanctions will not trigger immediate collapse, but might degrade capacity over time.
The geopolitical calculus is less subtle. China has emerged as a critical partner for Russia, not only economically but diplomatically. By purchasing discounted energy and offering alternative markets, Beijing provides a crucial lifeline. But it is not a frictionless one. Chinese companies remain wary of secondary sanctions and are increasingly navigating a tightrope between opportunism and exposure.
For the EU, this evolving Russia-China axis presents a strategic dilemma. Sanctions may no longer be purely economic tools—they are now instruments of long-term positioning in a multipolar order. Brussels is betting that persistent economic pressure, paired with diplomatic isolation, will weaken Russia’s negotiating position in any future peace talks.
But the clock is political. As Western attention wavers and domestic fatigue sets in, maintaining alignment across EU and G7 member states becomes harder. The pressure on Russia must be sustained, but so must the unity required to apply it.
The latest sanctions are not a climax, but a continuation of a strategy that no longer hinges on headlines. Their success will not be measured in Moscow’s surrender, but in its slow, grinding isolation from the global economic system it once depended on.