As tensions rise in the Middle East, the potential for an escalating conflict has sparked growing concern over the global economy, particularly the possibility of a shock to oil supply chains. Such a disruption could result in skyrocketing prices for gasoline, fuel, and petroleum-derived products like plastics and chemicals, threatening investment, hiring, and economic growth worldwide. Countries heavily reliant on imported oil, especially poorer nations in Africa, could face severe challenges, while Europe risks being pushed into recession.
The prospect of this economic fallout has gained urgency after Israel’s response to a missile barrage from Iran, which raised concerns about possible strikes on Iranian oil installations. While an Israeli attack on Iranian oil remains unlikely, the possibility of retaliatory strikes on refineries in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates has entered discussions. Such actions could destabilize the region, potentially affecting oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply.
The region’s current instability, exacerbated by recent hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, has broadened the range of potential threats. Iran’s actions could provoke a broader regional conflict, yet the country faces its own risks. Any escalation targeting Persian Gulf oil infrastructure could invite severe repercussions, worsening Iran’s already fragile economy.
Global economic consequences are on the table, as analysts predict oil prices could spike to $130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, inflicting a 0.4 percent hit on global GDP. Such a shock would come just as major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have been easing interest rates to encourage growth. A sudden surge in oil prices could halt that progress, driving up inflation and stalling economic recovery efforts.
Though unlikely to choke off the world’s oil supply entirely, these disruptions could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in lower-income countries, particularly in Africa. Nations like Zambia and Angola, already contending with debt crises, would face mounting difficulties as higher oil prices push up the cost of imports, further straining public finances.
Meanwhile, Europe remains especially exposed, having shifted away from reliance on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine. Another energy shock could lead to a combination of stagnating growth and rising inflation, echoing the stagflation of the 1970s.
With multiple volatile factors in play — from Russia’s war in Ukraine to the U.S.-China trade conflict — any escalation in the Middle East could tip the fragile global economy into deeper instability. While some scenarios may seem improbable, the expanding scope of possibilities in this volatile region makes even extreme outcomes a serious concern for policymakers across the globe.